Perceptions of government performance and collective trauma: the case of the 2023 Turkish earthquakes

Research on government evaluations after disasters focuses on democracies and retrospective decision-making theory, where voters either attentively evaluate performance based on experiences or make blind decisions reflecting emotional dispositions. This study examines individuals’ appraisals of government performance across three dimensions following the 2023 earthquakes in Türkiye: disaster management, preparedness, and blame attribution. Using nationally representative survey data, we find that earthquake losses and negative emotions relate to negative evaluations of government preparedness and management. However, these factors show no association with blaming the government, suggesting voters distinguish between different dimensions of government responsibility. Opposition party support and social media trust show significant negative associations across all dimensions, with partisanship being the strongest determinant. These findings highlight the relationship between affective polarisation and divergent government evaluations, suggesting that in polarised contexts with contrasting media, affective polarisation may be a stronger predictor of disaster related political outcomes than retrospection theory.