Divergent paths of political distrust: a pooled cross-sectional analysis of the underlying causes of political passivity and populism in Japan

Abstract In an era marked by pervasive political distrust, individuals exhibit a spectrum of responses, ranging from political disengagement to assertive forms of participation, often expressed through populist movements. Drawing on data from the Japanese Electoral Studies (JES) between 2009 and 2024, this study integrates attitudinal and behavioural measures to examine why some individuals retreat from political life while others remain politically engaged under similar conditions of distrust. Focusing on economic insecurity and nationalist sentiment as moderating grievances, the analysis shows that nationalist sentiment is consistently linked to both populist attitudes and electoral participation, whereas economic insecurity displays more limited and context-dependent associations. Overall, the findings indicate that identity-based grievances are more consistently linked to politically engaged responses to distrust than material concerns. This study provides novel insights into how political discontent is expressed in contemporary Japan, demonstrating that its patterns of populist engagement, particularly those associated with nationalism, exhibit important parallels with trends observed in other advanced democracies.