Travel booking behaviour under prolonged disruption: A behavioural orientation-adaptation trajectories model

This study examines how prolonged disruption reshapes tourist booking behaviour by distinguishing short-term adjustment, long-term transformation, and behavioural continuity. Adopting a mixed-methods design, it identifies behavioural orientations that structure how travellers interpret uncertainty and regulate booking decisions over time. Integrating qualitative and quantitative findings, the study develops a Behavioural Orientation-Adaptation Trajectories Model, conceptualising adaptation as a multi-pathway process rather than a linear recovery. The findings show that orientations related to risk elimination, information trust, subjective norms, feasibility, and long-term impact awareness are selectively activated and translated into differentiated behavioural outcomes. The study contributes to tourism research by explaining how prolonged disruption produces heterogeneous booking behaviours and why only some travellers develop sustained adaptive capacity. Practically, the findings provide guidance for aligning tourism service design and communication strategies with distinct customer adaptation trajectories. • Identifies three trajectories of tourist behavioural adaptation. • Distinguishes short-term, long-term, and stable responses. • Reveals behavioural orientations shaping booking decisions. • Proposes an orientation–adaptation trajectories model. • Explains why only some tourists develop adaptive capacity.