What affects carbon emissions in the construction industry? The role of device input, energy intensity, and industrial structure optimization

Improving carbon emission efficiency (CEE) in the construction sector is crucial for achieving low-carbon buildings and ecological civilization goals. To clarify the driving mechanisms of low-carbon development, this study measures the CEE of China's construction industry using the Super-SBM model and analyzes its spatiotemporal drivers via the Geographically Temporally Weighted Regression model. Based on the analysis, the approach enabled us to analyze temporal and regional variations in CEE across regions in 30 provinces in China from 2013 to 2022. It is found that the Carbon Emissions of the Construction Industry (CECI) experienced a stage from stable growth to slowing growth. From the spatial perspective, the CECI show a typical distribution pattern, which is higher in the eastern region, lower in the western region, and middle in the central region. Regarding the driving mechanisms, technical factors and demographic factors display distinct impacts. Technological advancement serves as a pivotal positive driver, enhancing efficiency through the dissemination of green construction technologies and energy-saving processes. Conversely, demographic factors generally impose constraints on CEE across most regions. This is primarily attributed to the escalating demand for infrastructure and the intensive resource consumption associated with population agglomeration. These results suggest that accelerating industrial upgrading in the construction sector could reduce reliance on high-carbon industries. The findings provide empirical evidence and policy insights for China's low-carbon transition, including differentiated regional strategies and enhanced interprovincial collaboration.