Modelling the risk posed by Aedes mosquitoes in Europe: Identifying research needs from public health stakeholders and field entomologists
The growing public health burden of Aedes mosquito-borne diseases requires a comprehensive understanding of Aedes species biology, ecology, and vector competence. Eco-epidemiological modelling of Aedes vector species has grown significantly in recent years, driven by the increasing reports of outbreaks in endemic and non-endemic temperate areas, as well as the latitudinal and altitudinal range expansion of these vectors. A prominent example is the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, a competent arbovirus vector that has spread across most continents through the movement of humans and goods. Species distribution models and mechanistic models have been used to predict the spatio-temporal distribution and dynamics of this vector. However, despite the potential of these models to capture the vector distribution and dynamics, integrating them into practical monitoring, surveillance, and vector control activities remains challenging, often due to a lack of communication and model co-development between scientists and public health stakeholders. This paper reports the results of a workshop on vector modelling held in Bologna (Italy) in September 2024, which brought together European experts in disease modelling, public health stakeholders, and medical entomologists. The workshop identified key priorities for advancing the operational use of Aedes-focused quantitative models, including sustained investment in surveillance, improved representation of environmental and biological drivers, standardisation of model outputs, and the establishment of long-term, co-produced modelling frameworks embedded within public health workflows.
Authors
- Olivier Briët (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1186-2688)
- Wim Van Bortel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6644-518X)
- Ruth Müller (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3909-3876)
- Martina Ferraguti (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7481-4355)
- Adolfo Ibáñez‐Justicia (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0768-2011)
- Miguel Garrido Zornoza (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5030-4537)
- Elisa Fesce (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2535-3684)
- Stephanie Margarete Thomas (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0507-2006)
- Marco Carrieri (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6444-0636)
- Giovanni Marini (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9721-7211)
- Carla Ippoliti (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9030-7329)
- Mattia Calzolari (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7489-2556)
- Eleonora Flacio (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8267-6503)
- Chiara Virgillito (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6957-0226)
- Cyril Caminade (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3846-7082)
- William Wint (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0916-0847)
- Federico Romiti (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7138-3924)
- Nicola Ferrari
- Pachka Hammami (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7490-6257)
- Alessandro Albieri (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-7914-2231)
- Daniele Da Re (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3398-9295)
- Kamil Erguler (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2674-592X)
- Friederike Reuss (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-6967-179X)
- Roberto Rosà (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8655-2230)
- Eleonora Longo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5719-5994)
- Sarah Droghei
- Dominic Brass
- Kern, Emmanuelle ; Marini, Giovanni ; Da Re, Daniele ; Dorigatti, Ilaria
- Greta Santarelli
- Bethan Purse
- Alexander Meyer
- Paola Angelini
- Lukas Sprengers
- Silvio D’Alessio
- Paul J Huxley
- Yiran Wang
- Marta Pardo
- Margo Blaha (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-1236-4585)
Institutions
- Fondazione Edmund Mach (IT)
- University of Notre Dame (US)
- Goethe University Frankfurt (DE)
- The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) (IT)
- Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (FR)
- Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES)
- Cyprus Institute (CY)
- University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland (CH)
- University of Milan (IT)
- University of Trento (IT)
- Oxford Research Group (GB)
- Estación Biológica de Doñana (ES)
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB)
- Regional Health (US)
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Lombardia e dell'Emilia Romagna "Bruno Ubertini" (IT)
- Agenzia Regionale Prevenzione e Ambiente della Regione Emilia-Romagna (IT)
- Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NL)
- Centro Agricoltura Ambiente (Italy) (IT)
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise G. Caporale (IT)
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Regioni Lazio e Toscana (IT)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- University of Bayreuth (DE)
- Università della Svizzera italiana (CH)
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (SE)
- Instituut voor Tropische Geneeskunde (BE)
- Sapienza University of Rome (IT)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Acta Tropica
- Published
- 2026-04-24
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2026.108108
- Primary Topic
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- Wellcome Trust
- Università degli Studi di Milano
- European Commission
- Università degli Studi di Trento
- Vlaamse regering
- Natural Environment Research Council
- Agencia Estatal de Investigación
- Departement Economie, Wetenschap en Innovatie
- H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions
- HORIZON EUROPE Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions
- Ministero dell'Istruzione e del Merito