Green Finance, Green Technological Innovation and Green Fiscal Policy as Drivers of Decarbonisation: Evidence From BRICS Using Conditional Process Analysis

ABSTRACT The current study looks into the impact of green finance on carbon emissions (CO 2 ) in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries. It utilised balanced panel data from 2000 to 2023. The current study integrates long‐term dynamic estimation and conditional process analysis (CPA) to comprehend the channels of influence, both temporally and structurally. We apply the cross‐sectionally autoregressive distributed lag model to determine the short‐ and long‐term impacts of green finance on emissions by considering cross‐sectional dependence. Following this, we use CPA, which uses fixed‐effects panel regressions to examine the hypothesis of whether green technological innovation mediates green finance and carbon emissions. In addition, we examine how green fiscal policy might moderate both direct and indirect effects. Our findings demonstrate that in the long run, green finance positively influences carbon emissions. Despite this, green technology innovation also affects emissions in the transition period. Notably, green fiscal policy plays a crucial role in modifying this relationship: it mitigates the emissions‐increasing impact of innovation while enhancing the emissions‐reduction effects of green finance. Furthermore, the analysis of bootstrap evidence demonstrates the evidence of moderated mediation, which means that the indirect impacts of green finance using innovation are much more emissions‐reducing when enhanced by the increase in the level of fiscal policy. Finally, the findings presented in this paper emphasise the necessity of avoiding using only financial tools; effective decarbonisation in developing economies requires having well‐developed fiscal systems.