Tourism futures dynamics theory: towards a theoretical foundation for futures studies in tourism

Purpose Tourism futures studies are of increasing interest. However, they remain method-driven and fragmented, with little theoretical consolidation. This article develops the Tourism Futures Dynamics Theory (TFDT), a mesotheory that brings together foundational constructs from futures studies and tourism management. Design/methodology/approach This is a conceptual theory-building article. We review and select constructs from the parent disciplines tourism futures and tourism management based on their necessity, relevance and transferability. These are integrated into a coherent relational model, with entropy introduced as a novel construct in tourism futures to capture the tendency of tourism futures scenarios to decay unless sustained by energy input. From this model, theoretical propositions are derived to guide further research. Findings We identified five foundational constructs (time, space, agency, uncertainty and entropy) that collectively form the building blocks of tourism futures. TFDT positions entropy as the dynamic force that destabilizes scenarios unless countered by deliberate action. Scenarios emerge from the interaction of temporal perspectives (past, present and future), spatial contexts (physical and virtual) and agency (protagonists and antagonists), but require continuous energy to persist. Originality/value This study makes three main contributions to the literature. First, it identifies and justifies a set of foundational constructs for tourism futures studies. Second, it integrates these constructs into TFDT, the first explicit theoretical foundation of the field. Third, it introduces entropy as a novel construct in tourism futures that explains scenario instability and the energy required to sustain desired futures.