Recreational fisheries as indicators of change: species range shifts from MRIP (1981–2024)

In response to global climate change, many marine fish species are shifting their distributions poleward and into deeper, cooler, and more oxygenated waters. Most studies examining this phenomenon rely on fishery-independent surveys with randomized sampling strata or fishery-dependent data from commercial fisheries. However, stock assessments in the United States also incorporate marine recreational data provided by NOAA’s Marine Recreational Information Program (MRIP), an intercept survey that collects data dockside and by phone to estimate fishing effort and landings. In this study, we analyze MRIP data as well as more conventional fishery-independent survey methods from 1981 to 2024 by quantifying range and latitudinal distribution shifts in four marine species (Black sea bass Centropristis striata, summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus, winter flounder Pseudopleuronectes americanus, and scup Stenotomus chrysops). These species are either structure-associated and difficult to sample with traditional methods, underrepresented in standardized trawl surveys, or lack a significant commercial fishery in the U.S. We detected significant latitudinal distribution shifts in black sea bass and summer flounder from 1981 to 2024, particularly in the fall season, with both species exhibiting strong poleward movement in MRIP-derived center of distribution (COD) estimates. These trends were corroborated by NOAA trawl survey data via the DisMAP tool. Black sea bass also showed moderate range expansion, while summer flounder exhibited range contraction. Scup displayed moderate range expansion in MRIP data but weak or non-significant COD shifts in both MRIP and DisMAP. Winter flounder showed consistent range contraction in MRIP but little movement in COD. While broad alignment was observed between MRIP and DisMAP patterns for black sea bass and summer flounder, discrepancies in scup and winter flounder trends highlight the complementary strengths and limitations of each dataset. We propose that MRIP data can complement existing survey frameworks, particularly for species not well captured by conventional methods. Finally, we recommend future research investigate the responsiveness of different datasets in detecting early signals of shifting stocks.