Study on the Trade Potential and Efficiency Loss of China’s Agricultural Exports to RCEP Member States

HRMARS - With the full implementation of the RCEP, examining the efficiency and potential of China’s agricultural exports to member countries is important for strengthening regional agricultural cooperation, optimising export allocation, and informing trade policy. Using panel data for China and 12 RCEP members from 2005 to 2022, this study applies a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model to assess trade efficiency, export potential, and their determinants. The results show that China’s agricultural exports to RCEP members still have substantial untapped potential, although overall efficiency remains inadequate. Economic scale, population, and resource endowments shape the trade frontier, while tariffs, logistics, digital infrastructure, institutional differences, and trade facilitation significantly affect the realisation of potential. The findings provide evidence for improving agricultural trade policy and guiding firms’ market strategies.