How Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Reshape Option Pricing?
ABSTRACT Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is a critical yet often neglected factor in derivatives pricing, leading to systematic biases in existing valuation frameworks. This study proposes an advanced pricing model that explicitly incorporates a stochastic EPU factor with a regime‐switching long‐term mean into the stochastic volatility framework. The principal theoretical contribution of this research is a closed‐form analytical pricing formula for European options, which successfully overcomes the challenges of multiple stochastic factors and achieves substantial computational advantages over traditional numerical methods such as the Monte‐Carlo simulation. A preliminary empirical study using SSE 50 ETF option data demonstrates the model's superior pricing performance compared to other benchmarks.
Authors
- Xin‐Jiang He (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1429-5463)
- Rixiang Fei
- Nana Xu
- Wenting Chen
Institutions
- Jiangnan University (CN)
- Zhejiang University of Technology (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Journal of Futures Markets
- Published
- 2026-04-24
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.70102
- Primary Topic
- Capital Investment and Risk Analysis
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00