How Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Reshape Option Pricing?

ABSTRACT Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is a critical yet often neglected factor in derivatives pricing, leading to systematic biases in existing valuation frameworks. This study proposes an advanced pricing model that explicitly incorporates a stochastic EPU factor with a regime‐switching long‐term mean into the stochastic volatility framework. The principal theoretical contribution of this research is a closed‐form analytical pricing formula for European options, which successfully overcomes the challenges of multiple stochastic factors and achieves substantial computational advantages over traditional numerical methods such as the Monte‐Carlo simulation. A preliminary empirical study using SSE 50 ETF option data demonstrates the model's superior pricing performance compared to other benchmarks.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Futures Markets
Published
2026-04-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.70102
Primary Topic
Capital Investment and Risk Analysis
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

How Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Reshape Option Pricing?

Xin‐Jiang He, Rixiang Fei, Nana Xu, Wenting Chen
Journal of Futures Markets
Capital Investment and Risk Analysis
article

How Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Reshape Option Pricing?

Xin‐Jiang He, Rixiang Fei, Nana Xu, Wenting Chen
article en

Abstract

ABSTRACT Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is a critical yet often neglected factor in derivatives pricing, leading to systematic biases in existing valuation frameworks. This study proposes an advanced pricing model that explicitly incorporates a stochastic EPU factor with a regime‐switching long‐term mean into the stochastic volatility framework. The principal theoretical contribution of this research is a closed‐form analytical pricing formula for European options, which successfully overcomes the challenges of multiple stochastic factors and achieves substantial computational advantages over traditional numerical methods such as the Monte‐Carlo simulation. A preliminary empirical study using SSE 50 ETF option data demonstrates the model's superior pricing performance compared to other benchmarks.

Journal of Futures Markets
Jiangnan University (CN), Zhejiang University of Technology (CN)
Openalex Percentile: Top 3%
Capital Investment and Risk Analysis
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