Land vertebrates increasingly exposed to multiple extreme events by 2085
Understanding how species are exposed to different types of extreme events is an emerging priority to inform biodiversity conservation under climate change. Using climate impact projections and species range data, we predict changes in exposure to droughts, heatwaves, river floods and wildfires for 33,936 terrestrial vertebrate species and 794 ecoregions. By 2050, under a medium-high emission scenario (SSP3-7.0), on average 74% of the area within species' current geographic ranges are projected to be exposed to heatwaves, 16% to wildfires, 8% to droughts and 3% to river floods. These trends include species-rich areas in the Amazon basin, Africa and Southeast Asia. By 2050, 22 ecoregions, primarily in mid-latitudes, are estimated to have at least 50% of their area exposed to two or more types of extreme events, increasing to 236 ecoregions by 2085 (SSP3-7.0). By 2085, 36% of the area within species' ranges are projected to be exposed to multiple event types (SSP3-7.0). These findings highlight the need for further research into species' sensitivity and adaptive capacity to extreme events, and for conservation strategies that address the impacts of multiple extreme events.
Authors
- Kedar Otta (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2540-9879)
- Karim Zantout (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1357-1721)
- Benedikt Mester (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7731-476X)
- Sandra Zimmermann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-0130-0528)
- Maik Billing (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7315-7007)
- Hjalmar S. Kühl (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4440-9161)
- Stijn Hantson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4607-9204)
- Aristeidis Koutroulis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2999-7575)
- Manolis Grillakis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4228-1803)
- Katja Frieler (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4869-3013)
- Christopher Reyer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1067-1492)
- Yadu Pokhrel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1367-216X)
- Sian Kou‐Giesbrecht (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4086-0561)
- Simon N. Gosling (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5973-6862)
- Sebastian Ostberg (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2368-7015)
- Hannes Müller Schmied (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5330-9923)
- Stefanie Heinicke (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0222-5281)
- Akihiko Ito (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5265-0791)
Institutions
- Goethe University Frankfurt (DE)
- University of Nottingham (GB)
- University of Potsdam (DE)
- Simon Fraser University (CA)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP)
- Leibniz Association (DE)
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (DE)
- Senckenberg Museum für Naturkunde Görlitz (DE)
- International University Institute (IHI) Zittau (DE)
- Technical University of Crete (GR)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Karlsruhe University of Applied Sciences (DE)
- The University of Tokyo (JP)
- Michigan State University (US)
- Universidad del Rosario (CO)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Ecology & Evolution
- Published
- 2026-04-24
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03050-0
- Primary Topic
- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum
- European Commission
- Brandenburger Staatsministerium für Wissenschaft, Forschung und Kultur
- Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
- HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science