Geopolitical Headwinds and Risks in India’s Agricultural Markets

The growing frequency of geopolitical conflicts has added a new dimension of uncertainty to the global agricultural markets, thereby renewing concerns about the vulnerability of the food system to such shocks. Disruptions triggered by the Russia–Ukraine war, US–China rivalry, USA tariff wars and the recent Middle East tensions demonstrated how quickly geopolitical frictions can disturb agricultural supply chains and intensify volatility in commodity prices worldwide. This note examines the relationship between geopolitical risks and the evolving agricultural market dynamics. For developing economies like India, where agriculture remains central to both rural livelihoods and food price stability, such global shocks carry important macroeconomic implications. JEL Classification: Q13, Q17, F51, E31