Population and landscape genomics provide insights into the adaptive genetic variation and future climate-induced vulnerability of the endangered tree species <i>Phoebe bournei</i>

Abstract Elucidating the genomic underpinnings of adaptive variation is highly important for the conservation, landscape application, and management of ornamental trees against the backdrop of global climate change. However, research on the genetic mechanisms underlying climate adaptation in Phoebe bournei—a near-threatened subtropical tree species endemic to China, which is endowed with exceptionally high ornamental and ecological value—remains scarce. Whole-genome resequencing was conducted on 362 individuals from 27 natural populations across the geographical range of the species. Genome-environment association analyses were employed to identify 1556 climate-associated variants and 167 candidate genes associated with temperature and precipitation variables. Through functional annotation and expression profiling, pivotal genes, including TRX-M4 and FBD1, were identified as integral to drought and heat stress responses, with adaptive alleles displaying distinct geographic frequency distributions and significant phenotypic differentiation. Divergent evolutionary trajectories were deduced among populations, with southeastern populations distinguished by elevated genetic diversity and strong signatures of local adaptation. Nevertheless, projections derived from the Risk of Non-Adaptedness (RONA) and gradient forest models suggest that these southeastern populations will face substantial genomic offset under future climate scenarios, signaling heightened vulnerability and the need for prioritized conservation and management. This study provides the first genome-wide perspective into the adaptive evolution of P. bournei and offers a robust foundation for its conservation and climate-resilient management.