Financialization of the Housing Market and Demographic Challenges on the Example of Voivodeship Capitals in Poland

Abstract This article examines the relationship between the financialization of the housing market and demographic processes of voivodeship capitals in Poland. The research is motivated by the growing role of financial mechanisms in shaping housing availability, prices, and investment patterns, influencing people’s decisions about starting families and procreation. The study aimed to identify the relationship between the process of housing market financialization and the natural increase in the years 2011–2024 in 16 voivodeship capitals using panel econometric models. The dependent variable was natural increase per 1000 population, while the explanatory variables reflected key dimensions of housing market financialization. The results indicate that rising housing prices may lead to a decline in natural increase in Polish voivodeship capitals, a phenomenon that intensified after 2020. The supply of new housing supported a natural increase before the COVID-19 pandemic, but this relationship reversed in 2020–2024 amid rising prices, interest rate hikes, and increased investment demand. Demographic (control) variables behave as expected. The results suggest that the financialization of the housing market may contribute to urban depopulation. The added value of this article lies in linking the financialization of the housing market with demographic processes using panel econometric models.