Socio-Political and Economic Determinants of Residential Property Performance Volatility in Emerging Real Estate Markets

Abstract This study investigates the determinants of residential property performance volatility in an emerging African real estate market, with particular emphasis on the interplay between socio-political unrest, demographic dynamics, and macroeconomic factors. Using a purposive sampling approach, data were obtained from 327 estate surveying and valuation firms across major Nigerian cities through structured questionnaires and expert interviews. Descriptive statistics and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were employed to identify key drivers of volatility, following a three-stage analytical process involving factorability assessment, component analysis, and eigenvalue validation using Kaiser’s criterion. The findings reveal youth restiveness as the most dominant factor influencing residential property performance, followed by locational characteristics, structural attributes, population growth, and disposable income. Youth restiveness (driven by socio-political instability, unemployment, and economic uncertainty) was found to significantly undermine investor confidence and property values. The study contributes novel empirical insights into how socio-political volatility shapes real estate market behaviour in emerging economies. Beyond the Nigerian context, these findings have broader relevance for investors, practitioners, and policymakers, offering a framework for understanding and mitigating market instability while promoting resilient, inclusive, and sustainable real estate investment strategies in similar global markets.