Spatial and temporal variation in survival of female wild turkeys

Abstract Female survival often is the vital rate that contributes most to population growth of upland gamebirds such as wild turkey ( Meleagris gallopavo ). Female wild turkey survival may vary spatially and temporally, for example, in relation to land cover and the individual's behavior state, so investigation of the factors that affect female survival is critical to direct long‐term management. We radio‐tracked 370 female turkeys from 2020 to 2022 to determine spatial and temporal factors that influenced survival across study areas in each of the 3 major ecoregions in North Carolina, USA. We constructed a Bayesian hierarchical model, parameterized using covariates likely to influence survival—year, age class, mean daily distance traveled, land cover type and edge density in the individual's home range, and ecoregion (Coastal Plain, Piedmont, or Mountain)—for 4 behavior states (non‐breeding, pre‐nesting, incubation, and brood rearing). We recorded 59 (48% of monitored individuals) mortalities in the Mountain ecoregion, 64 (56%) mortalities in the Piedmont ecoregion, and 41 (31%) mortalities in the Coastal Plain ecoregion. Female survival in the pre‐nesting and non‐breeding states increased with greater average daily distance traveled. No land cover covariate influenced survival estimates within any behavior state. Overall, daily survival rates were lowest for the incubation state (0.993 [SD = 0.003]) and highest during the pre‐nesting and brood‐rearing states (0.999 [SD = 0.002] and 0.999 [SD = 0.001], respectively). Because mortality risk was greatest during the incubation state, managers may indirectly increase female survival by increasing the amount of nesting cover on the landscape.