Shaping China’s Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling System to Meet the Retirement Wave: Insights from Integrated Modeling

) cathode material production from end-of-life packs as the functional unit, HVPD lowers total cost by about 10% versus Hydro under their respective cost-optimal networks, driven by scale economies and reduced transport burdens. Across prospective background scenarios (reflecting evolving electricity systems and upstream supply chains), recycling reduces global warming potential (1-42%), fossil-fuel potential (3-28%), surplus ore potential (about 67%), and carcinogenic human toxicity potential (20-30%) relative to primary production, with HVPD consistently lower. Overall, shifting the shipped form from packs to powder reshapes cost-optimal network geometry while reducing total system cost and life-cycle impacts.