Explaining Intention and Return Behaviour in Deposit-Refund Systems: An Integrated Behavioural Model for Circular Economy Transitions

Deposit-refund systems (DRS) are increasingly used to reduce packaging waste, yet little is known about the behavioural mechanisms that shape return decisions in newly implemented systems. This study examines the drivers of beverage-container returns in Hungary’s national DRS called REPont. It builds on a broad set of behavioural theories, integrating elements from multiple explanatory frameworks to capture the full range of psychological and contextual forces shaping return intention and behaviour. A nationwide online survey (n = 2,661) was conducted to measure behavioural intention and self-reported return frequency, allowing direct assessment of the intention–behaviour relationship. Composite constructs were developed from unidimensional scales, and ordinary least squares regression was used to evaluate the predictive contribution of each construct. Results show that perceived usefulness, financial benefits, and environmental attitudes strongly predict intention, while perceived barriers are not significant predictors of intention but show a positive association with return frequency. Intention was a significant but incomplete predictor of return frequency, indicating the presence of an intention–behaviour gap during the early phase of system adoption. Gender also showed systematic effects. Women reported higher return intentions, whereas, interestingly, men showed higher return frequency. The findings highlight the importance of improving system usability and user experience, addressing context-specific barriers, and providing clear information about DRS in order to strengthen both intention and actual return behaviour. By identifying the most influential psychological and contextual determinants, the study offers implications for policymakers and system operators seeking to increase the efficiency of DRS implementations in emerging circular-economy systems.