Species Distribution Models Reveal the Resilience of Protected Areas for Conserving an Endemic Amazonian Canid

ABSTRACT Climate change and habitat loss represent major threats to biodiversity worldwide, especially for species with narrow distributions and specific ecological requirements. Atelocynus microtis (Sclater, 1882) (Carnivora, Canidae), a forest‐dependent canid endemic to the Amazon Basin, is highly sensitive to environmental disturbances, making it particularly vulnerable to ongoing climatic and land‐use changes. In this study, we used species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate the potential impacts of future climate scenarios on the distribution of A. microtis , and to assess the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in maintaining suitable habitats for the species. We compiled and filtered occurrence records, applied environmental and spatial thinning, and developed ensemble models using six algorithms under baseline and future climate scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, 2061–2080). SDMs were constrained by vegetation cover and masked to the Amazon biome. Our results indicate a potential loss of 21% to 53% in suitable habitat under future climate conditions. However, despite this projected decline, approximately 53% of suitable range remains within PAs across all scenarios, far exceeding the minimum conservation target of 10% for wide‐ranging species. This underscores the critical role of PAs, particularly Indigenous lands, in safeguarding Amazonian biodiversity under accelerating anthropogenic pressure. These findings reinforce the need to strengthen and maintain the integrity of conservation networks, especially in regions like the southern Amazon where projected habitat losses are most severe. Our results highlight the importance of integrating climate resilience into conservation planning to ensure long‐term species survival.