Promising climate progress from net-zero ambitions to the Paris Agreement goal
Climate targets require strong commitments from countries to be achieved. Using a multi-model analysis, we show that current net-zero pledges bring the world closer to a well-below 2 °C pathway, but an emission gap remains. Increasing ambition will be crucial: expanding the global coverage of net-zero pledges and speeding up action increases consistency with the Paris Agreement (1.5–2.0 °C range in model mean). However, reaching the 1.5 °C goal without overshoot seems increasingly unlikely. While net-zero pledges help reduce carbon-intensive energy sources, domestic policies aligned with strong climate commitments are needed to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and increase renewable energy capacity. Our scenarios show that emission reductions are driven by gains in energy efficiency, a strong phase-down of coal use and the electrification of sectors such as transport and heavy industry. It is important to assess the gap between national climate ambitions and the goal of limiting global temperature increase. This multi-model analysis shows that if net-zero pledges are implemented, meeting the 2 °C target is feasible, while increasing ambition and international cooperation is crucial.
Authors
- Christoph Bertram (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0933-4395)
- Volker Krey (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515)
- Gunnar Luderer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9057-6155)
- Isabela Schmidt Tagomori (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0469-6055)
- Fabio A. Diuana (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1981-4824)
- Luiz Bernardo Baptista (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7016-1796)
- Oliver Richters (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8253-4716)
- Ioannis Dafnomilis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5371-2341)
- Roberto Schaeffer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3709-7323)
- Zoi Vrontisi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3767-0617)
- Jarmo Kikstra (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9405-1228)
- Oliver Fricko (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6835-9883)
- Dimitris Fragkiadakis
- Lara Aleluia Reis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6676-7007)
- Laurent Drouet (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4087-7662)
- Gokul Iyer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3565-7526)
- Yang Ou (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1889-6218)
- Matthew Zwerling
- Bas van Ruijven (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-5892)
- Matthias Weitzel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3764-3731)
- Florian Fosse (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0239-1143)
- Elena Hooijschuur (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-3146-2574)
- Pedro R. R. Rochedo
- Detlef van Vuuren (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0398-2831)
Institutions
- Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (BR)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- Khalifa University of Science and Technology (AE)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- Peking University (CN)
- Sustainability Institute (ZA)
- RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (IT)
- CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (IT)
- Information Technology for Market Leadership (Greece) (GR)
- Joint Research Center (ES)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- University of Maryland, College Park (US)
- Universidade Nova de Lisboa (PT)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2026-04-22
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02615-y
- Primary Topic
- Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- European Commission
- Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
- Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação
- Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research
- HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme