Projected Changes in Wind Characteristics over Ireland Based on the CMIP6 Models Under the SSP Scenarios

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of historical and projected variability in the wind climate over Ireland and its adjacent marine regions, including the North Atlantic Ocean, Irish Sea, and Celtic Sea. First, the long-term wind characteristics are examined using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset for the historical period (1979–2008), followed by an evaluation of five CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) to determine their performance in representing regional wind climatology. Based on spatial validation and relative bias analyses, the most suitable model is selected to investigate future wind changes under the SSP2-4.5 and 5-8.5 scenarios. The CMIP6 historical data is also compared locally at seven measurement stations. Two future projections are considered for the near-term (2031–2060) and mid-term (2071–2100), focusing on inter- and intra-annual variability and extreme wind behaviour. The results indicate an overall decrease in mean wind speed across the study area, with more pronounced reductions under SSP5-8.5 and during the mid-term period. In terms of seasonality, reductions are more pronounced during winter and summer than in the transitional seasons. According to the extreme value analysis based on the generalised extreme value distribution, general declines in extreme values are detected at selected critical locations, especially at wind speeds with large return periods.