Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Mechanism of Green Total Factor Productivity in the Grassland Animal Husbandry Industry in Qinghai Province

Qinghai Province shoulders the heavy responsibility of serving as China’s ecological security barrier. In the process of implementing the “ecological priority” strategy, the green development of grassland animal husbandry in Qinghai Province plays an especially important driving role. To systematically reveal the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and core driving mechanism of Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP) and provide a decision-making basis for the green transformation and high-quality development of regional animal husbandry, this paper, based on relevant data from 2010 to 2024 in Qinghai Province, constructs a measurement and influencing factor index system for the GTFP of grassland animal husbandry. Then, it conducts a systematic analysis of the temporal evolution and spatial differentiation characteristics of the GTFP of grassland animal husbandry in Qinghai Province using methods such as trend surface analysis and standard deviation ellipse. Subsequently, the influencing factors are discussed through the geographic detector model. The research findings are as follows: (1) During the study period, the GTFP of grassland animal husbandry in Qinghai Province shows an overall upward trend. Spatially, it presents a regional pattern of “strong in the north and stable in the south,” with the migration center moving towards the northeast and the distribution becoming more concentrated. (2) The level of fiscal support for agriculture, accessibility of transportation, the degree of environmental governance and the degree of digitalization play core driving roles in the process of GTFP climbing in grassland animal husbandry. (3) Interaction analysis shows that the explanatory power of any two influencing factors in the study area is higher than that of a single factor, and the interaction between the level of fiscal support for agriculture and the degree of environmental governance is the most significant. Therefore, the key to improving the GTFP of grassland animal husbandry in Qinghai Province lies in the coordinated allocation and linkage of financial support for agriculture and environmental governance. At the same time, this study can provide reference value for the green transformation and high-quality development of plateau grassland animal husbandry.