«SILENT REVOLUTION» OR «DEMOGRAPHIC WINTER»? ON THE AGING OF THE MODERN SIBERIAN VILLAGE

The aim of the study is to identify general patterns and characteristics in the aging process of the Krai's rural population and its factors, as well as to evaluate its results. This is the first study to examine the problem of Siberia's population aging using the rural population of Krasnoyarsk Krai as a case study. The study draws on the seven most recent general population censuses and current government statistics, while the research methodology is based on the theory of demographic modernization. Population aging is viewed as an integral part of its transition to a modern type of natural reproduction, as a global and irreversible modern phenomenon. All processes and events are compared with similar ones in rural areas of Russia as a whole. The study covers the current territorial boundaries of Krasnoyarsk Krai, and the chronological period from 1959 to 2023. The objectives are to reconstruct and analyze the dynamics of the rural population's age structure in the Soviet and post-Soviet periods, as well as the scale and rate of change in its main components. The primary focus is on analyzing changes in generations aged 60 and older, and assessing their demographic characteristics at different times. The study examines how the elderly population of the region's villages has changed over the 30 years since the Soviet era, and how it differs from the rural "elderly" of Russia as a whole. It shows that, while the proportion of the elderly in the region's villages has tripled, there have been virtually no qualitative demographic changes. The vast majority of the elderly are "young old," their proportion has remained stable over time, there is no "deepening" of demographic aging, and the elderly are dying early, as in the late 1950s. The proportion of people aged 80+ in the village population has increased from 1.1% to 3.0%, a very small increase. It is concluded that the aging process is the underlying factor behind the "demographic winter" in Krasnoyarsk villages.