Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin

Introduction Ecological resilience, which is the core capacity of ecosystems to withstand disturbances, maintain functions, and undergo adaptive transformation, is critical to ecological conservation and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. Methods This study examines 60 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin using 2006–2023 panel data. Adopting an evolutionary resilience perspective, we develop a three-dimensional ecological resilience framework—resistance, adaptation, and innovation—and combine boxplot analysis, GIS-based spatial analysis, and the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to reveal spatiotemporal patterns of ecological resilience and quantify local and spillover effects of natural and socio-economic drivers. Results (1) Ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin followed a fluctuating upward trend between 2006 and 2023, with widening regional disparities and a distinct spatial pattern: high in the lower reaches, low in the middle, and volatile in the upper reaches. (2) SDM results reveal a U-shaped direct effect of economic development (PGDP) on ecological resilience; industrial structure (IS), government intervention (GOV), and population density (POP) significantly reduced local eco-logical resilience, while residents’ living standards (DPI) enhanced it. (3) Spatial spillovers highlight interregional complexity: PGDP’s indirect effect is also U-shaped; urbanization (UR), POP, and DPI positively influence neighboring areas. Conclusion The study concludes with policy recommendations to implement differentiated basin-wide collaborative governance strategies, promote green industrial transformation, and leverage the positive spatial spillover effects of urbanization and improvements in residents’ living standards.