Digital Capabilities and the Real Options Value of Resilience: Rethinking Supply Chain Concentration in Uncertain Environments

Supply chain resilience is essential for managing uncertainties in the digital era, yet the role of base firm resilience in shaping supply chain dynamics remains underexplored. This study, based on Resource Dependence Theory (RDT) and Real Options Theory (ROT), investigates the impact of corporate resilience on supply chain concentration as well as the moderating effect of corporate digital technology adoption (DTA) using data from Chinese enterprises (2010–2022). A holistic measure of corporate resilience (RES), based on 11 financial indicators, reveals that resilient firms, those capable of absorbing shocks and recovering from disruptions, tend to diversify their supply chains, reducing concentration. This negative relationship is particularly pronounced in state-owned enterprises, non-manufacturing sectors, non-highly polluting industries, and firms in western China. Moreover, quadratic analysis uncovers a non-linear U-shaped relationship, illustrating that firms may strategically concentrate supply chains for efficiency gains. DTA further strengthens the resilience-concentration dynamic by enhancing firms’ agility and responsiveness, underscoring the importance of integrating resilience and digital capabilities. These findings offer actionable insights for firms, policymakers, and investors, highlighting the strategic value of resilience and digital transformation in building robust and adaptive supply chain networks.