Evolution Trajectory and Driver Analysis of Habitat Quality Dynamics in the Yellow River Basin

Identifying the heterogeneous characteristics of habitat quality (HQ) trajectories is a key prerequisite for refined ecological spatial management. We used kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) to correct the highly sensitive parameters, validated the correction results based on their consistency with the prior study findings, developed a framework for the evolution of HQ using Sen+MK and Pettitt’s tests, and utilized XGBoost and partial correlation analysis to identify the primary drivers of dynamic changes in HQ from both spatiotemporal perspectives. Our findings include the following: (1) between 2000 and 2023, the average annual rate of change in the HQ index was 0.0037 per year, indicating a continuous improvement in HQ. Compared with the period from 2011 to 2023 (0.0026 per year), the rate of improvement in HQ was faster during 2000–2011 (0.0047 per year). (2) Mutational improvement and progressive improvement were the main evolutionary trajectories, accounting for over 50.33% of the total. (3) Precipitation, land-use intensity (LUI), temperature, and elevation show a strong correlation with HQ distribution. The magnitude of HQ variation is related to HQ status, LUI, precipitation, and elevation. This study establishes a scientific foundation for developing differentiated regulatory strategies for YRB.