Construction and Application of an Emergency Monitoring Indicator Evaluation Model Based on the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Forest Fires

The lack of scientific methods for selecting monitoring indicators and equipment undermines the efficiency of forest fire emergency response. To address this gap, we developed a novel evaluation model for emergency monitoring indicators based on the spatiotemporal evolution of forest fires. The model, comprising four primary and eight secondary factors, leverages a hybrid TriFAHP and DBN approach to objectively determine factor weights based on survey data from 20 domain experts. The results indicate that the primary factor weights rank as follows: Monitorability (0.3807) > Timeliness (0.3353) > Sensitivity (0.1874) > Feasibility (0.0966). Four indicators (wind speed, temperature, flame, and gas) were identified as the most suitable for core monitoring. Furthermore, stage-specific monitoring strategies were proposed, prioritizing different core indicators across the ignition, spread, and fully developed fire stages. An indicator and equipment association was established, recommending optimal configurations such as UAV-mounted thermal imagers and lidar anemometers. The practical applicability of the proposed framework was successfully validated through real-world case studies, including the 2019 to 2020 Australia bushfires. This study provides a standardized framework aligning indicators, equipment, and scenarios, offering theoretical and practical guidance for optimizing emergency monitoring systems.