Job mismatches and their implications for the career development of vocational graduates

The transition from vocational education into the labour market is a key indicator of how effectively VET systems prepare graduates for employment. A central concern for school-based and work-based programmes alike is whether education-job mismatches undermine vocational adjustment and early career development. This study examines how mismatch at labour-market entry is associated with graduates' subsequent five-year employment trajectories in the Netherlands. We combine the 2016 Dutch School Leaver Survey with monthly register data from 2015-2020 for 10,364 school leavers. Using a Mixture Hidden Markov Model (MHMM), we identify five early-career trajectories that capture variation in employment stability, contract quality and progression. The results show that education-job mismatches at the beginning of the career are associated with a higher probability of following the Volatility & Entrapment trajectory, which is characterised by temporary contracts, limited progression and high turnover. Dual mismatches (vertical and horizontal combined) are linked to a notably lower likelihood of upward mobility, suggesting persistent vocational disadvantages that extend beyond the point of entry. Importantly, the findings reveal differences in vocational resilience across programme types: The negative associations of mismatch are more pronounced for school-based graduates. While work-based graduates show greater resilience to single mismatches, any type of mismatch is associated with a lower probability of following a successful early career for school-based graduates. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40461-026-00207-w.