Spatiotemporal Climate–Vegetation Dynamics and the Vegetation Ecological Quality-Based Zoning Under Climate Change: Evidence from the Qinling Mountains

This study analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the vegetation ecological quality under climate change. Focusing on the vegetation conditions, a vegetation ecological quality index was constructed, expressing as the product of vegetation fraction cover (VFC), net primary productivity (NPP), and geographic coverage area. The results of trend and significance analysis showed that from 2000 to 2023, the VEQI in the Qinling Mountains exhibited a significant improvement, with an average slope of 4.91 gC·a−1 and 96.2% of the area showing high stable improvement. Partial correlation analysis revealed that precipitation had a stronger positive influence on VEQI than temperature, with over 98% of the area showing a positive correlation with precipitation, while temperature was positively correlated in 95.0% of the area but negatively correlated in high-altitude mountain zones. Therefore, four climate-driven patterns were identified: precipitation-driven (31.2%), temperature-driven (2.3%), co-driven (54.2%), and climate-stable (12.3%), suggesting that vegetation ecological quality in most regions is co-driven by both temperature and precipitation. Based on the results of trend and significance analysis and climate-driven patterns, the Qinling Mountains were divided into three ecological risk zones: low-risk (36.1%), middle-risk (56.9%), and high-risk (7.0%), with corresponding differentiated control measures proposed.