Estimation of Leaf Water Content in Spring Wheat Based on UAV Multispectral Imagery

Leaf water content (LWC) is a key physiological indicator for assessing crop water status. However, its spectral response may vary under different irrigation practices, which limits the general applicability of existing models. This study aims to develop irrigation-specific LWC estimation models for spring wheat based on UAV multispectral imagery. Field experiments were conducted during two growing seasons (2023–2024) under three irrigation methods, with five water treatments and three replicates, resulting in a total of 45 experimental plots. Multispectral data and in situ measurements were collected at key growth stages. Irrigation-dependent sensitive vegetation indices were identified through correlation analysis, and machine learning models, including Random Forest (RF), Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), and Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN), were constructed and evaluated using a five-fold cross-validation framework. The results showed that spectral sensitivity to LWC varied significantly across irrigation methods, with different dominant indicators under FD, ND, and MD. Model performance also exhibited irrigation-dependent differences. Among the three models, RF showed the most stable performance, achieving mean R2 values of 0.70, 0.74, and 0.62 and corresponding RMSE values of 0.04, 0.06, and 0.08 under FD, ND, and MD, respectively. In contrast, MLR showed lower predictive accuracy, while BPNN exhibited limited robustness under the current dataset, particularly under ND. These findings highlight the importance of irrigation-specific modeling strategies for improving LWC estimation reliability.