Coordinated Vessel Arrival Time Prediction and Berth Allocation Optimization for Efficient Port Operations

Uncertainty in vessel arrival times can substantially reduce the efficiency of berth planning in port operations. To address this issue, this study proposes a unified, data-driven, predict-then-optimize framework that explicitly links vessel arrival time (VAT) prediction with downstream continuous berth allocation optimization. In the prediction stage, heterogeneous maritime data, including port call records, AIS trajectories, and vessel physical characteristics, are integrated to construct VAT prediction models. In the optimization stage, the predicted VAT is embedded into a continuous berth allocation problem (BAP) model to support berth scheduling decisions. To better reflect real operations, a two-stage evaluation framework is further developed, in which berth plans generated from estimated arrival times (ETAs) or predicted VATs are re-evaluated under realized actual arrival times while preserving the original temporal and spatial service order. Experimental results show that the proposed framework improves VAT prediction accuracy substantially, reducing the MAE and RMSE from 4.795 h and 7.255 h for the vessel-reported ETAs to 2.844 h and 4.934 h, respectively. More importantly, the predicted-VAT-based BAP consistently outperforms the ETA-based benchmark, yielding an overall 35.96% reduction in objective value across tested scenarios. These findings demonstrate that improved VAT prediction can be effectively translated into meaningful operational gains in berth allocation.