Cooperation Possibility with Participating Countries in the Warsaw Framework for REDD+: Based on MRV Capacity, and ODA Need-Effectiveness

Developing countries participating in the Warsaw Framework for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Plus (REDD+) (WFR) are eligible to receive financial incentives linked to verified reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from forest-related activities. It is necessary to strategically select priority countries among the WFR participants to achieve REDD+ cooperation and mutual benefits between recipient and donor countries. This study evaluates the mitigation potential of 71 developing countries registered under the WFR (December 2025) using two dimensions: national measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) capacity and the need-effectiveness of official development assistance (ODA) in strengthening MRV capacity. Countries were ranked and classified into six typological groups based on MRV capacity and ODA need-effectiveness. The results show that countries with an intermediate MRV implementation capacity and high ODA need-effectiveness can transition to the MRV implementation phase through policy and financial interventions, suggesting high potential to achieve emission reductions and become priority countries for cooperation. Meanwhile, those with an intermediate MRV implementation capacity but low ODA need-effectiveness were interpreted as types where medium- to long-term cooperation possibilities can be reviewed based on improvements to MRV components. Our findings suggest a two-stage cooperation strategy that integrates short-term MRV-based engagement with long-term ODA-driven capacity-building to expand REDD+ mitigation outcomes under the WFR.