Assessing Surface Water Quality Risks Under Climate Stress and Geopolitical Instability: An Information Systems Approach

Surface water systems are increasingly exposed to multiple pressures generated by climate variability, intensified water resource exploitation, and evolving geopolitical dynamics. This study provides a novel contribution by identifying critical threshold effects and non-linear interactions that influence nitrate concentrations through an integrated information systems framework. It develops an integrated information-system-based analytical framework that combines hydrological, climatic, geopolitical, and strategic indicators to shape the broader contextual framework within which hydrological and climatic pressures operate, rather than serving as direct predictors. Considering the nitrate concentration in rivers as a key parameter of water quality, the paper goes beyond univariate analysis of nitrite concentration, examining its relationship with four explanatory variables: the Water Exploitation Index Plus (WEI+), the number of heat stress days (Heat_Stress), the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), and a proxy variable representing the presence of strategic infrastructure (Nuclear_State) using a Reduced Error Pruning Tree (REPTree) decision tree algorithm with 10-fold cross-validation. The results indicate that climatic stress emerges as the primary predictor, with a critical threshold of approximately 7.83 heat stress days, beyond which nitrate concentrations increase significantly. Under conditions of high climatic stress and intensive water exploitation (WEI+ ≥ 67.39), predicted nitrate levels exceed 20 mg/L and can reach extreme values of up to 58.82 mg/L. In contrast, low hydrological pressure (WEI+ < 0.39) combined with moderate climatic stress is associated with very low nitrate concentrations, around 2.75 mg/L. The model demonstrates strong predictive performance, with a correlation coefficient of 0.976, a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.593, a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 2.046, and a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) area exceeding 0.94 for classification tasks. While geopolitical and strategic variables do not act as direct predictors, they contribute to shaping the contextual framework influencing water resource management and environmental vulnerability. Overall, the study highlights the non-linear and systemic nature of water quality dynamics and demonstrates the effectiveness of decision tree-based models within integrated information systems for supporting environmental monitoring and decision-making under conditions of climate stress and geopolitical uncertainty.