Operational Energy and Lifecycle Assessment of Envelope Retrofit Strategies for District-Heated Residential Buildings: Comparison of Expanded Polystyrene and Bio-Based Insulation

Improving the energy performance of existing multi-apartment residential buildings is critical for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in Central and Eastern Europe, where large stocks of post-war buildings with limited insulation are connected to district heating systems. This study evaluates façade insulation retrofit strategies for two representative typologies in Novi Beograd, Serbia—a high-rise tower and an elongated slab-type (‘lamella’) building—using calibrated dynamic energy models and cradle-to-use lifecycle assessment (LCA) over a 50-year service life. Models were calibrated against measured 2023–2024 heating consumption data (NMBE < 1%, CVRMSE < 15%) and normalized with Typical Meteorological Year weather for consistent scenario comparison. Retrofit scenarios applied expanded polystyrene (EPS) and cellulose insulation at 10, 12, and 15 cm thicknesses. Results show that external insulation reduces annual heating demand by approximately 19–20% compared to the uninsulated baseline (192 kWh/m2·a), with the majority of savings achieved at 10 cm and only marginal gains from additional thickness. Insulation thickness has a stronger influence on operational energy reduction than material choice, as differences between EPS and cellulose remain below 0.5%. LCA indicates 23.6–26.0% lower climate change impacts and 23.6–25.8% reduced cumulative energy demand in retrofit scenarios, with cellulose offering modest advantages due to lower embodied emissions and biogenic carbon storage. These findings support targeted envelope retrofits as an effective strategy for decarbonizing district-heated residential buildings in the region.