Impact of supply capacity factor on the cost of large-scale renewable hydrogen

Renewable hydrogen is an important potential contributor to the decarbonisation of heavy industries, provided it can be produced at large scale, suitable cost, and minimal interruptions. A key concern is the cost impact of firming hydrogen provision to approach a continuous supply, which is essential for this sector. We report an analysis of the cost of firmed hydrogen using a techno-economic model for optimal component sizing of renewable hydrogen production plants, incorporating hydrogen storage. Our findings indicate that the levelised cost of delivered hydrogen will not increase significantly when shifting from partial to full demand coverage, given the availability of suitable site and anticipated costs for emerging underground hydrogen storage technologies in the Australian context. This addresses one of the potential barriers to the contribution of renewable hydrogen to decarbonising one of the largest mining sectors and contributing to downstream processing of Australia's mining output into higher value products. • Techno-economic analysis of renewable hydrogen generation is presented. • A novel model incorporates a set supply capacity factor in system design. • Hydrogen cost is weakly affected by capacity factor with underground storage. • Falling solar costs shift optimal power source toward solar. • Year on year weather variability does affect the cost hydrogen significantly.