Following the Dragon: Understanding Chinese NGOs’ Location Choices in Global Development Initiatives

China has increasingly integrated nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) into its global development strategies. Chinese NGOs’ project location choices have far-reaching implications not only for the effectiveness and sustainability of service delivery and resource allocation but also for the broader dynamics of international development and diplomacy. However, existing studies on location choices have focused on Western NGOs, with limited attention to how NGOs from authoritarian states like China, characterized by heightened governmental influence and constrained NGO autonomy, choose locations for international development projects. This paper represents the first attempt to empirically investigate the underlying factors and mechanisms. Based on a unique panel dataset, we show that NGOs tend to align their project locations with government initiatives, placing more projects in countries with more Chinese government-financed aid and development projects and a greater cross-country political affinity stemming from shared socialist legacies. In addition, such government-guided NGO alignment has temporal dynamics, with the effects of government projects on NGO initiatives peaking within the initial five years and diminishing thereafter. These findings provide insights into shifting development paradigms, the evolving role of civil society in international relations, how authoritarian regimes leverage NGOs to advance their foreign policy objectives, and the long-term implications for civic infrastructure development worldwide.