Drivers of energy infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa: The roles of fiscal policy, market forces and energy pricing

Energy infrastructure deficits remain a core barrier to sustainable development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), yet existing studies often analyse fiscal, market or energy pricing determinants in isolation. This study provides an integrated panel analysis of how fiscal policy, market dynamics and energy pricing conditional on institutional quality affect energy infrastructure development (EID) across 29 SSA countries from 2000 to 2023. Using interaction models and institutional threshold analysis, the study identifies measurable governance tipping points that determine when reforms translate into infrastructure gains. Results show that tax revenue and government expenditure improve EID by 1.421% and 1.509% respectively, but only when government effectiveness exceeds quantified thresholds of 2.749 and 2.523. Market forces such as GDP growth, foreign direct investment and trade openness consistently support infrastructure expansion, with corresponding improvements of 0.274%, 0.129%, and 0.215%, with stronger effects under improved institutional conditions. Energy pricing effects are mixed: fossil fuel dependence undermines EID across all governance levels, while energy productivity yields gains only when regulatory quality exceeds the threshold value of 3.052. Regional heterogeneity shows that West and Southern Africa are better positioned to leverage fiscal and trade-based reforms, while East and Central Africa remain constrained by institutional weaknesses. By converting governance thresholds into operational policy benchmarks, the findings provide a sequencing framework for aligning fiscal, market, and energy reforms with institutional readiness to accelerate sustainable energy access in SSA. • Study integrates fiscal policy, market forces, and energy pricing to explain EID in SSA countries. • Tax revenue and government spending boost EID only when governance is strong. • GDP growth, FDI, and trade consistently enhance infrastructure development. • Fossil fuel dependence hinders EID, while energy productivity helps under good regulation. • West and Southern Africa benefit most; East and Central Africa remain limited by weak institutions.