The ‘rally’ falters: Russian public opinion and the war in Ukraine

Abstract This research investigates Russian public sentiment towards its leadership during the Russia–Ukraine war (2022–24), contrasting it with prewar approval trends (2019–21). Using Gallup data, the study challenges the notion of a straightforward ‘rally ‘round the flag’ effect, revealing a decline in leader approval post-invasion. Through regression analysis and expert interviews, factors such as war-related information exposure, perceived corruption, military confidence, and demographic variables are examined for their influence on public opinion. The findings indicate negative correlations between leader approval and military confidence/media freedom, with declines disproportionately observed among the male population, younger demographics, and individuals with higher education. This study suggests that the ‘rally ‘round the flag’ effect is limited within the Russian context, highlighting the need for nuanced approaches to understanding public opinion during geopolitical crises. It further provides insight into the relationship between media censorship, public corruption, and approval of Russian leaders. The study concludes by exploring the implications of these trends for potential postwar challenges facing the Russian administration.