Integrated GIS–LCA Framework for Sustainable Bioeconomy Pathways: Assessing Reed Biomass Availability in Lake Ecosystems and Carbon Footprint of Reed-Based Product Manufacturing

In the context of green energy, the use of lake reeds is becoming an increasingly important factor. Therefore, research into the availability of reeds, determining their area in lakes, predicting the potential biomass volume and calculating the carbon footprint are important. Currently, there have been no significant research results on the availability of reeds and the assessment of the sustainability of reed products in Latvia. However, these aspects are crucial for the development of reed products, as they help to assess their market potential and environmental impact. The main goal of this work is to develop a method for modeling the distribution of lake reeds in order to predict their availability in the future, which would allow assessment of the volume of biomass and its impact on the environment. This research develops an integrated GIS–LCA framework that combines Sentinel-2 satellite data, machine learning-based classification, biomass estimation, and carbon footprint modeling. Using Lake Cirma as a case study, the classification results show that reed stands occupy 2.18–3.51 percent of the lake area in certain years, corresponding to approximately 1158–1861 tons of biomass. The framework enables quantification of harvesting potential while considering ecological constraints that limit annual extraction to approximately 50% of total biomass. The proposed GIS–LCA framework provides a replicable methodology for assessing reed biomass availability and environmental performance across lake ecosystems. It supports evidence-based decision-making for sustainable reed resource management and contributes to the development of low-carbon bioeconomy pathways in line with EU climate and bioeconomy strategies.