Transboundary Aquifer Vulnerability: Modeling Future Groundwater Decline in the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer (Al Kufrah Basin, Libya)

Groundwater in arid and semi-arid regions is increasingly stressed by low rainfall, high evaporation, population growth, agricultural expansion, and climate change. A critical question is whether non-renewable aquifers can sustain rising water demand without irreversible decline. This study addresses that question for the Al Kufrah Basin in southeastern Libya, part of the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System, the world’s largest fossil aquifer. A three-dimensional groundwater flow model (MODFLOW-2000) was calibrated using data from more than 1000 production wells and 32 piezometers spanning 1968–2022. The model was applied to simulate groundwater behavior under five scenarios extending to 2050, including the planned development of 150 new wells. The results indicate that over 85% of withdrawals are derived from aquifer storage rather than boundary inflows. While regional water levels remain relatively stable over the 25-year horizon, localized drawdowns of up to 11 m are expected near new well fields. These findings highlight short-term resilience but point to long-term vulnerability, as continued reliance on non-renewable reserves without recharge will ultimately lead to depletion. The study underscores the need for adaptive management, climate-resilient water strategies, and regional cooperation to ensure the sustainable use of this transboundary aquifer under increasing environmental and socio-economic pressures.