Hydro-geomorphological drivers across scales shape the trajectory of coastal wetland restoration

Coastal wetlands provide essential ecosystem services but continue to decline globally, driving demand for effective restoration. Managed realignment, which relocates sea defenses landward to reinstate tidal exchange, is a key nature-based solution for creating self-sustaining wetlands. However, unpredictable restoration outcomes highlight the need for a framework to understand the underlying physical drivers and prioritize sites. Using four decades of satellite data from 69 global sites, we show that over 80% of the restoration projects maintained or expanded wetlands. These trajectories are primarily shaped by regional sediment supply, local tide-relative elevation, and internal tidal creek connectivity. Extending this framework globally, we estimate about 920 square kilometres of wetlands lost since the 1990s could be restored under current physical conditions. Recoverable areas in Asia, the Americas, and Europe exceed the 30% target of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. By linking outcomes to multi-scale physical contexts, our results provide a framework for prioritizing restoration and advancing global biodiversity and climate goals.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2026-04-22
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71992-x
Primary Topic
Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Hydro-geomorphological drivers across scales shape the trajectory of coastal wetland restoration

Johan van de Koppel, Kang Zhang, Feng Zhao, Junlin Ren et al.
Nature Communications
Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics
article

Hydro-geomorphological drivers across scales shape the trajectory of coastal wetland restoration

Johan van de Koppel, Kang Zhang, Feng Zhao, Junlin Ren, Jun Ma, Ting Zhang, Daphne van der Wal, Sikai Wang, Fangyan Cheng, Ping Zhuang, Chuyu Cheng, Changlin Xu, Tingting Zhang, Tjeerd J. Bouma
article en

Abstract

Coastal wetlands provide essential ecosystem services but continue to decline globally, driving demand for effective restoration. Managed realignment, which relocates sea defenses landward to reinstate tidal exchange, is a key nature-based solution for creating self-sustaining wetlands. However, unpredictable restoration outcomes highlight the need for a framework to understand the underlying physical drivers and prioritize sites. Using four decades of satellite data from 69 global sites, we show that over 80% of the restoration projects maintained or expanded wetlands. These trajectories are primarily shaped by regional sediment supply, local tide-relative elevation, and internal tidal creek connectivity. Extending this framework globally, we estimate about 920 square kilometres of wetlands lost since the 1990s could be restored under current physical conditions. Recoverable areas in Asia, the Americas, and Europe exceed the 30% target of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. By linking outcomes to multi-scale physical contexts, our results provide a framework for prioritizing restoration and advancing global biodiversity and climate goals.

Nature Communications
Zhejiang A & F University (CN), University of Groningen (NL), Shanghai Jiao Tong University (CN), Utrecht University (NL), Ministry of Ecology and Environment (CN), Ministry of Natural Resources (CN), Fudan University (CN), Ministry of Education (RO), Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NL), Ministry of Transport (CN), Ministry of Natural Resources (RW), Yangtze River Pharmaceutical Group (China) (CN), ES Technology (United Kingdom) (GB), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (CN), Shanghai Ocean University (CN), Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences (CN), University of Twente (NL)
Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai, National Natural Science Foundation of China
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 9%
Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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