Why have immigrant entry earnings fluctuated widely in recent years? The role of immigration selection and labour-market conditions

In recent years, the entry earnings of newly admitted immigrants to Canada have exhibited substantial year-to-year fluctuations. Notably, first-year earnings increased by 21% for the 2020 admission cohort relative to the previous cohort and by 11% for the 2021 cohort, followed by a 13% decline for the 2022 cohort—despite a continued modest rise in the median wage among all Canadian workers. This article examines the extent to which these fluctuations reflect changes in immigrant selection and broader labour market conditions. Using data from the Longitudinal Immigration Database, the analysis focuses on admission cohorts from 2015 to 2022 and measures earnings (annual wages or salaries) in immigrants’ first full calendar year after admission.