Attributable Deaths from Heat and Cold in Austria According to Future Climate Scenarios Until 2100

Climate change will impact the distribution of daily deaths in Austria until the end of the century. This study examines the net effects of fewer cold and more-frequent hot days on daily mortality under different climate and demographic scenarios. Projected district-level mortality data and daily temperatures based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are analyzed to estimate the number of attributable deaths for every fifth year due to heat and cold using district-wise temperature–effect estimates from a previous analysis. While the overall shape of the time course of temperature-attributable deaths depends mostly on the demographic developments (with the highest numbers of daily mortality mid-century), under all climate scenarios investigated, the increase in heat-attributable deaths will be more pronounced than the decrease in cold-attributable deaths. Contrary to common claims, shift in temperatures due to climate change already has a net negative effect on population health in Austria now.