Climate-Driven Species Substitution in Mongolian Cattle Herds: Adaptation Between Yaks and Mongolian Cows

Climate has shaped pastoral production systems worldwide, influencing which livestock animals herders choose to raise. While most research has focused on genus choice—such as from cattle to goats to chickens—less attention has been paid to species choice within a single genus. This study uses a representative panel from Mongolia to examine climate-sensitive substitution between two closely related cattle species: cold-adapted yaks (Bos grunniens) and more heat-tolerant Mongolian cattle (Bos taurus). Both OLS and fractional logit models confirm that the yak share of all cattle is sensitive to seasonal temperature and precipitation. Fixed-effects panel regressions of yak and Mongolian cow populations reveal that warmer winter and spring temperatures reduce yak populations but warmer winters increase Mongolian cattle populations. Summer warming is detrimental to Mongolian cattle but not yaks. Overall warming leads to losses for yaks (-439 head/°C) and Mongolian cattle (-256 head/°C), signaling that substitution may buffer but not fully offset warming. Increased precipitation decreases yak populations -1450 head/cm/mo but increases Mongolian cattle 5364 head/cm/mo largely because of the harmful winter effects of snow on yaks. These results highlight how subtle species changes within a genus can act as a climate adaptation even though they may not always prevent the harmful long-term impacts of warming.