Observation and Modeling of Polarization Jet During the 10 May 2024 Geomagnetic Storm: A Case Study for Kaliningrad and Eastern Europe

This study investigates subauroral phenomena during the main phase of the 10 May 2024 geomagnetic storm using a combination of ground-based observations from the WD IZMIRAN observatory (magnetometer, ionosonde, and all-sky imager) and Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Protonosphere (GSM TIP) simulations. During 18:00–20:00 UT, we identified the simultaneous occurrence of ionospheric signatures of Polarization Jets (PJ)/Sub-Auroral Ion Drifts (SAID) and Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement (STEVE) over Kaliningrad, consistent with previously reported PJ/SAID identification from DMSP drift velocity measurements. This identification is supported by: (1) characteristic purple emissions (clearly visible in all three channels) moving rapidly westward; (2) U-shaped structures in ionogram sequences; (3) the reproduction of supersonic westward plasma drifts within a narrow latitudinal band by the first-principles model; and (4) observed and simulated significant Ne depletion. The estimated ion drift velocity from all-sky imaging (assuming an emission altitude of 200 km) is consistent with GSM TIP simulations, which predicted PJ/SAID velocities of ~750 m/s driven by a latitudinally narrow (~3°) but longitudinally extended (>50°) poleward electric field (40 mV/m). Simulations reveal that this PJ/SAID phenomenon causes a reversal of the zonal thermospheric wind at 250 km and induces Ne disturbances across the 200–700 km altitude range. The electron temperature enhancement (up to 1500 K) exhibits a “falling drop” shape, peaking at 350 km, while ion heating exceeds 150 K. The neutral temperature shows a dual response: frictional heating at 120–160 km and localized cooling at 175–250 km due to drop in electron density. Additionally, an increase in atomic oxygen concentration was predicted within the 90–200 km range across the PJ/SAID longitudinal sector.