An Analysis of the Spatial Pattern of Demographic Ageing in Türkiye Using Bivariate Mapping

This study analyzes the spatial pattern of demographic ageing in Turkey using a bivariate mapping technique. The research is based on the smallest administrative units in the country-villages and neighborhoods-and simultaneously evaluates the elderly population count (numerical ageing) and the proportion of elderly individuals (structural ageing). Utilising 2023 population data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) and applying the bivariate mapping tool in ArcGIS Pro, four ageing categories were identified: low-low (L-L), high-low (H-L), high-high (H-H), and low-high (L-H). The findings indicate that while the elderly are numerically concentrated in urban areas, structural ageing is more pronounced in rural villages and neighbourhoods, where "deep ageing" is observed. Moreover, the spatial patterns of the identified ageing categories are associated with other demographic phenomena, such as internal migration and fertility. The results demonstrate that ageing in Turkey is not a uniform phenomenon but rather one marked by spatial heterogeneity. This underscores the importance of spatial scale and regional differentiation in policymaking. Ultimately, the study contributes to social service planning by making the local dynamics of ageing—often obscured in national aggregates—more visible and strategically actionable.