Episodic alignments, enduring constraints: Understanding Türkiye–Central Asia cooperation through Neorealism

Utilising Neorealism, this article explains why cooperation between Türkiye and the five Central Asian republics has remained episodic since 1991. Using a theory-guided case study that is primarily qualitative and supported by quantitative economic data, it examines diplomatic, cultural, economic, and military security ties through an episodic/transformative lens. By tracing recognitions, aid initiatives, institutionalised Turkic cooperation, connectivity projects (including the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity), trade patterns, and defence-industrial ties, it shows that identity and institutions such as the Organisation of Turkic States open channels for collaboration, yet outcomes ultimately track shifts in power, interests, and security needs.