Academic and Demographic Predictors of Retention and Persistence in Business Programs: Post-COVID Cohorts of Traditional and NCCCS Transfer Students

This quantitative study examined academic and demographic predictors of first-year retention and major persistence among traditional first-year and North Carolina community college transfer students enrolled in undergraduate business programs. Guided by Tinto’s 1993 Model of Student Retention and Astin’s 1984 Theory of Student Involvement, the research focused on students who entered two AACSB-accredited institutions within the UNC System during Fall 2021, Fall 2022, and Fall 2023 as traditional first-year students or as transfer students from North Carolina community colleges. Institutional data from the Banner Student Information System provided the basis for logistic regression analyses that examined predictors including high school GPA, standardized test scores, transfer GPA, associate degree completion, Pell Grant eligibility, first-generation status, gender, and enrollment modality. Outcomes focused on first-year retention and major persistence, with special attention to transfer students and online learners. Findings were intended to inform academic advising, transfer policy, and support strategies that strengthen retention and persistence in business programs, offering insights applicable to institutions navigating similar post-pandemic challenges.