Predicting Urban Heat Island Mitigation Through Green Infrastructure on Post-Demolition Vacant Land

Rapid urbanization and the decline of inner-city areas have led to a sharp increase in vacant houses in large cities. Cities are increasingly converting vacant land into green space to mitigate associated negative externalities. This study quantifies the urban heat island (UHI) mitigation effects of green infrastructure using meta-analysis and applies the derived relationships to predict both on-site and surrounding cooling effects for vacant land. First, we conducted a meta-analysis of published studies reporting the cooling effects of green infrastructure and derived regression equations relating green-space area to (i) cooling within the green space, (ii) cooling in the surrounding area, and (iii) the spatial extent of the cooling effect. Second, we applied these equations to two high-density areas in Sungui-dong, Nam-gu, Incheon, Republic of Korea. The results suggest that introducing a neighborhood park at Site A (7559.5 m2) would reduce air temperature by up to 2.751 °C within the park and by 1.507 °C up to 62 m beyond the park boundary. A pocket park at Site C (992.1 m2) would reduce air temperature by up to 2.269 °C within the park and by approximately 0.92 °C in the surrounding area. These findings provide quantitative evidence that green infrastructure can serve as an effective environmental intervention and support the adoption of climate-responsive urban regeneration policies.