Predicting Fall-Related Deaths in Japan by Seasonality

Objective: In Japan, fall-related deaths have been increasing in parallel with rapid population aging, yet nationwide studies remain scarce. Against this background, the establishment of prevention strategies for falls has become a public health challenge in Japan. We herein attempted to predict fall-related deaths in consideration of seasonality. Methods: In this ecological study, we collected data on the number of fall-related deaths (per month and per 100,000 people) in Japan between 2017 and 2023 and the number of fall-related deaths (per year and per 100,000 people) in each of the 47 prefectures between 2021 and 2023 from the official website of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. We also used air temperature parameters from the official website of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the aging rate from the official website of the Cabinet Office, Japan. Results and conclusion: The number of fall-related deaths was the highest in the month of December and was also significantly higher in December than in July (p = 0.0194) and August (p = 0.0192). An analysis of data from each of the 47 prefectures showed that the number of fall-related deaths correlated with air parameters. A Prophet (Meta, Menlo Park, CA, USA) analysis was performed to predict the number of fall-related deaths in Japan for the next three years and revealed an increase with seasonal patterns. The number of fall-related deaths is predicted to increase with seasonality in Japan.